Power Concentration in AI — Live Indicators

A standing empirical companion to Power Concentration in AI. Last updated: November 8, 2026.

“Latest Observation” means the most recent comparable observation located for each indicator. Reporting frequencies differ, so observation dates vary by row and are stated in each cell.

The argument does not depend on every indicator increasing each quarter. This page tracks the structural conditions identified in the essay — capital mobilization, governance control, infrastructure concentration and dependency, and the resulting physical and political footprint — to see whether they are strengthening, weakening, or persisting over time. Indicators are updated when a new comparable observation becomes available; because the underlying data are reported on different schedules, comparisons may be quarterly, annual, event-driven, or based on a new research release.

Indicator Latest Observation Previous Observation Direction Source
Capital Mobilization
Combined reported 2026 capex guidance, company definitions — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft & Meta 1 $720–740B
post-Q3 guidance
$720–745B
post-Q2 guidance
→ Company guidance: Amazon · Alphabet · Microsoft · Meta
Nvidia Data Center revenue $89.0B
Q2 FY2027
$75.2B
Q1 FY2027
↑ Nvidia 10-Q
Governance Control
Zuckerberg voting power / economic interest — Meta 60.8% / ~13.5%
Apr. 1, 2026
61.0% / ~13.6%
Apr. 1, 2025
→ Meta proxies: 2026 · 2025
Page & Brin combined voting power — Alphabet 52.7%
Apr. 2026
52.3%
Apr. 2025
↑ Alphabet proxies: 2026 · 2025
OpenAI Foundation equity interest and governance control 26% equity at recapitalization close
appoints and can replace all OpenAI Group directors; checked Sep. 9, 2026
No prior observation — OpenAI — Our structure
Occupied Anthropic board seats held by Long-Term Benefit Trust appointees 2 3 of 6 — 50%
as of Oct. 31, 2026
4 of 7 — majority
Apr. 14, 2026
↓ Anthropic S-1/A
Infrastructure Concentration & Dependency
Nvidia estimated share of AI training accelerators >90%
Mar. 2026 analyst estimate
No prior observation — Reuters / Summit Insights
TSMC share of global foundry revenue 3 72.5%
Q2 2026
72.3%
Q1 2026, revised comparative
↑ TrendForce
AWS + Microsoft + Google share of cloud infrastructure services 61%
Q3 2026
63%
Q2 2026
↓ Synergy: Q3 2026 · Q2 2026
Hyperscalers' share of Nvidia Data Center revenue 4 54.7%
Q2 FY2027
57.2%
Q1 FY2027, current classification
↓ Nvidia 10-Q
Footprint & Political Accountability
Global data-center electricity consumption 485 TWh
2025; ~1.5% of global electricity
415 TWh
2024; ~1.5%
↑ IEA
Data centers' share of Virginia Power electricity sales 28%
2025
26%
2024
↑ Dominion Energy / SEC
Virginia localities with at least one data-center-related NDA 25 of 31 — 81%
2025 FOIA study
No prior observation — University of Mary Washington
Publicly tracked AI-linked independent expenditures 5 $67.1M
through Nov. 3, 2026
$61.8M
through Sep. 28, 2026
↑ Elect Humans
public-filings compilation

↑ indicator increased → materially unchanged ↓ indicator decreased — no comparable prior observation

Important: the arrow describes movement in the indicator itself. It does not automatically mean that “concentration increased” or “concentration decreased.” Interpretation depends on what the indicator measures.

Source and interpretation notes

1 Capital expenditure. The $720–740B range combines the most recent 2026 guidance from Amazon (~$220B), Alphabet ($195–205B), Microsoft (~$170B), and Meta ($135–145B). The companies do not define capital expenditure identically, so this is an aggregate of reported guidance rather than a like-for-like measure. Relative to the post-Q2 range, Microsoft lowered its calendar-year expectation by about $5B because of delayed third-party capacity, while Meta raised the bottom of its range by $5B. The combined range is therefore treated as materially unchanged.

Meta economic interest. Zuckerberg's economic-interest percentage is calculated from proxy-reported beneficial holdings and shares outstanding. Meta itself describes his economic interest as approximately 13%. In October 2026 Meta approved a new publicly listed, non-voting Class C common stock, effective January 19, 2027, together with a planned one-for-one Class C stock dividend. Meta states that the dividend will not change any shareholder's voting power. The development is relevant to the governance structure but does not create a new comparable observation for the voting-power row. Meta Q3 2026

2 Anthropic. Anthropic's November 2, 2026 S-1/A states that its board consisted of six directors as of October 31 and identifies Daniela Amodei, Reed Hastings, and Vas Narasimhan as the three current directors elected as LTBT nominees. That resolves the uncertainty recorded in the September update and puts the occupied LTBT-appointed share at 3 of 6, or 50%, versus 4 of 7 in April. The filing separately describes the structure that would apply upon completion of the offering: seven authorized board seats, four Class T seats generally controlled by the LTBT, initially Hastings, Narasimhan, Christopher Liddell, and one vacancy. It also proposes Class F common stock held by a Founder LLC with 50.1% of general stockholder voting power. Those post-offering provisions are not treated as current observations in the row.

Nvidia accelerator share. The >90% figure is an analyst estimate rather than a company-reported market statistic. No prior estimate with a sufficiently clear and comparable denominator is used to manufacture a trend.

3 TSMC foundry share. TrendForce's September 2026 release puts TSMC at 72.5% of global foundry revenue for Q2 2026, on revenue of about $40.2B, up 12.1% sequentially. Its June release put Q1 2026 at 72.0%; TrendForce's current dataset, as reported by CNA / Focus Taiwan and the Taipei Times, puts that quarter at 72.3%. The sequential growth rate implies TSMC's Q1 revenue is unchanged at about $35.9B, so the revision falls on TrendForce's estimate of total foundry revenue rather than on TSMC. This row uses the revised comparative, making the quarter-on-quarter increase 0.2 percentage points.

Market-share measures. TSMC and cloud-provider shares rely on independent market-research organizations because individual company filings cannot by themselves establish industry-wide market shares. Synergy's Q3 2026 estimates put AWS at 26%, Microsoft at 19%, and Google at 16%, for a combined 61%, down from 63% in Q2. At the same time, quarterly cloud infrastructure-service revenue rose 55% year over year to $167.7B. Synergy also reports rapid growth among several neocloud providers. The result is evidence of declining top-three share, while the three firms remain dominant in a rapidly expanding market.

4 Nvidia hyperscaler dependency. Nvidia reports Hyperscale revenue as a submarket of Data Center, covering the public clouds and the world's largest consumer internet companies. In Q2 FY2027 it reclassified a company from AI Clouds, Industrial, & Enterprise (ACIE) to Hyperscale due to a change in that company's business model and recast the prior period. Q1 FY2027 hyperscale revenue was first published as $37.9B of $75.2B in Data Center revenue, or 50.3%; on the current classification it is $43.1B of the same $75.2B, or 57.2%. The current-basis observations available are Q1 FY2026 at 56.9% (derived from six-month totals), Q2 FY2026 at 58.8%, Q1 FY2027 at 57.2% and Q2 FY2027 at 54.7%. Q3 and Q4 FY2026 have not been republished on this basis, so the quarterly series is discontinuous. The Q2 year-over-year comparison, 58.8% to 54.7%, is like-for-like. The reported Hyperscale category is also a floor on hyperscaler-linked end demand: Nvidia attributes part of ACIE growth to hyperscalers utilizing AI clouds.

Electricity. The IEA figure covers all data centers, not AI facilities alone. Its current central projection is roughly 950 TWh of global data-center electricity consumption by 2030. That projection provides context but does not determine the direction arrow.

Virginia NDAs. The 25-of-31 finding means researchers found at least one data-center-related NDA in 25 Virginia localities with an existing, approved, or proposed project. It does not mean that 25 projects were secretly approved or that the approvals themselves occurred “under” NDAs.

5 Political expenditures. The $67.1M figure is a secondary compilation of publicly disclosed independent expenditures across AI-linked federal and state political networks, with data through November 3, 2026. The previous $61.8M observation is the tracker total recorded on September 28, 2026. The networks included in the compilation do not share a single policy agenda. The total is not equivalent to money raised and should be treated as a publicly observable floor, not a comprehensive measure of political activity.

Method

This page is designed as a living empirical companion to Power Concentration in AI, not as a composite index or a scorecard in which every arrow is expected to point upward.

Latest Observation means the newest publicly available observation that can be stated on a reasonably comparable basis.

Previous Observation means the preceding genuinely comparable observation. It is not automatically the previous calendar quarter. Some indicators update quarterly, some annually, some when corporate structures change, and others only when new research becomes available.

An older number is never carried forward and presented as a new observation merely because time has passed. No new observation does not mean “unchanged.” A → is used only when a newer comparable observation actually indicates little or no material movement.

When a provider revises a previously published comparative, the tracker uses the provider's revised figure. If the superseded figure has previously appeared on this page, the revision is disclosed in the notes rather than silently rewriting the record.

Projected values may provide context but never determine a direction arrow.

Primary company, regulatory, and government sources are preferred where they can establish the relevant fact. Independent research organizations are used where a statistic requires market-wide measurement or original research that individual companies cannot provide. Secondary compilations are explicitly identified as such.

The purpose of the tracker is not to confirm the essay's argument. It is to record evidence that can move in either direction — including evidence of persistence, diversification, declining dependency, or weakened concentration.

Read the accompanying essay: Power Concentration in AI . Indicators are reviewed as new comparable observations become available.