Power Concentration in AI — Live Indicators
The argument does not depend on every indicator increasing each quarter. This page tracks the structural conditions identified in the essay — capital mobilization, governance control, infrastructure concentration and dependency, and the resulting physical and political footprint — to see whether they are strengthening, weakening, or persisting over time. Indicators are updated when a new comparable observation becomes available; because the underlying data are reported on different schedules, comparisons may be quarterly, annual, event-driven, or based on a new research release.
| Indicator | Latest Observation | Previous Observation | Direction | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Mobilization | ||||
| Combined 2026 capex guidance — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft & Meta |
$720–745B post-Q2 guidance |
$695–725B post-Q1 guidance |
↑ | Company guidance: Amazon · Alphabet · Microsoft · Meta |
| Nvidia Data Center revenue |
$75.2B Q1 FY2027 |
$62.3B Q4 FY2026 |
↑ | Nvidia |
| Governance Control | ||||
| Zuckerberg voting power / economic interest — Meta |
60.8% / ~13.5% Apr. 1, 2026 |
61.0% / ~13.6% Apr. 1, 2025 |
→ | Meta proxies: 2026 · 2025 |
| Page & Brin combined voting power — Alphabet |
52.7% Apr. 2026 |
52.3% Apr. 2025 |
↑ | Alphabet proxies: 2026 · 2025 |
| OpenAI Foundation governance control / equity interest |
26% equity appoints all OpenAI Group directors |
— | — | OpenAI |
| Occupied Anthropic board seats held by Long-Term Benefit Trust appointees |
3 of 6 — 50% current board |
4 of 7 — majority Apr. 14, 2026 |
↓ | Current board · Apr. 2026 · Kreps departure |
| Infrastructure Concentration & Dependency | ||||
| Nvidia estimated share of AI training accelerators |
>90% Mar. 2026 analyst estimate |
— | — | Reuters / Summit Insights |
| TSMC share of global foundry revenue |
72.0% Q1 2026 |
70.4% Q4 2025 |
↑ | TrendForce: Q1 2026 · Q4 2025 |
| AWS + Microsoft + Google share of cloud infrastructure services |
63% Q1 2026 |
63% Q4 2025 |
→ | Synergy: Q1 2026 · Q4 2025 |
| Hyperscalers' share of Nvidia Data Center revenue |
50.3% Q1 FY2027 |
54.3% Q4 FY2026 |
↓ | Nvidia 10-Q |
| Footprint & Political Accountability | ||||
| Global data-center electricity consumption |
485 TWh 2025; ~1.5% of global electricity |
415 TWh 2024; ~1.5% |
↑ | IEA |
| Data centers' share of Virginia Power electricity sales |
28% 2025 |
26% 2024 |
↑ | Dominion Energy / SEC |
| Virginia localities with at least one data-center-related NDA |
25 of 31 — 81% 2025 FOIA study |
— | — | University of Mary Washington |
| Publicly tracked AI-linked independent expenditures |
$53.9M through Jul. 25, 2026 |
— | — |
Elect Humans
public-filings compilation |
↑ indicator increased → materially unchanged ↓ indicator decreased — no comparable prior observation
Important: the arrow describes movement in the indicator itself. It does not automatically mean that “concentration increased” or “concentration decreased.” Interpretation depends on what the indicator measures.
Source and interpretation notes
Capital expenditure. The four companies do not use perfectly identical accounting definitions. In July 2026, Microsoft reduced its reported calendar-year capex estimate from about $190B to about $175B because more future data-center leases will be classified as operating rather than finance leases. Microsoft stated that, apart from this accounting treatment, its underlying 2026 investment expectations were unchanged.
Meta economic interest. Zuckerberg's economic-interest percentage is calculated from proxy-reported beneficial holdings and shares outstanding. Meta itself describes his economic interest as approximately 13%.
Anthropic. In April 2026 the Long-Term Benefit Trust's appointees occupied four of seven board seats, a majority. Jay Kreps, an LTBT-appointed director, subsequently stepped down. Anthropic currently lists six directors, leaving three occupied LTBT-appointed seats. The decline shown here therefore measures occupied seats, not a reduction in the Trust's underlying charter authority to appoint directors.
Nvidia accelerator share. The >90% figure is an analyst estimate rather than a company-reported market statistic. No prior estimate with a sufficiently clear and comparable denominator is used to manufacture a trend.
Market-share measures. TSMC and cloud-provider shares rely on independent market-research organizations because individual company filings cannot by themselves establish industry-wide market shares.
Nvidia hyperscaler dependency. The percentages are calculated from Nvidia's recast market- platform disclosures: $37.869B of $75.246B in Data Center revenue in Q1 FY2027, versus $33.814B of $62.314B in Q4 FY2026. Nvidia defines “Hyperscale” to include public clouds and the world's largest consumer-internet companies.
Electricity. The IEA figure covers all data centers, not AI facilities alone. Its current central projection is roughly 950 TWh of global data-center electricity consumption by 2030. That projection provides context but does not determine the direction arrow.
Virginia NDAs. The 25-of-31 finding means researchers found at least one data-center-related NDA in 25 Virginia localities with an existing, approved, or proposed project. It does not mean that 25 projects were secretly approved or that the approvals themselves occurred “under” NDAs.
Political expenditures. The $53.9M figure is a secondary compilation of publicly disclosed independent expenditures across AI-linked federal and state political networks. It is not equivalent to money raised and should be treated as a publicly observable floor, not a comprehensive total of all political activity.
Method
This page is designed as a living empirical companion to Power Concentration in AI, not as a composite index or a scorecard in which every arrow is expected to point upward.
Latest Observation means the newest publicly available observation that can be stated on a reasonably comparable basis.
Previous Observation means the preceding genuinely comparable observation. It is not automatically the previous calendar quarter. Some indicators update quarterly, some annually, some when corporate structures change, and others only when new research becomes available.
An older number is never carried forward and presented as a new observation merely because time has passed. No new observation does not mean “unchanged.” A → is used only when a newer comparable observation actually indicates little or no material movement.
Projected values may provide context but never determine a direction arrow.
Primary company, regulatory, and government sources are preferred where they can establish the relevant fact. Independent research organizations are used where a statistic requires market-wide measurement or original research that individual companies cannot provide. Secondary compilations are explicitly identified as such.
The purpose of the tracker is not to confirm the essay's argument. It is to record evidence that can move in either direction — including evidence of persistence, diversification, declining dependency, or weakened concentration.
Read the accompanying essay: Power Concentration in AI . Indicators are reviewed as new comparable observations become available.
Read the essay: Power Concentration in AI